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Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Wolves 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Wolves 0-1 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.16 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.76 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Wolves fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.80 / defence 1.41 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.97 / defence 0.95, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 25% | Draw 23% | Nottingham Forest 51%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 61%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 0.86. That form edge translated into the three points. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights