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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Leeds cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Leeds beat Wolves 1-3 at Molineux Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolves 1.85 xG and Leeds 1.03 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Wolves fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Leeds outscored their 1.03 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolves attack 0.98 / defence 1.42 against Leeds attack 0.63 / defence 1.38, drawn from 42/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Wolves 57% | Draw 23% | Leeds 21%, with Wolves to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Leeds win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolves 64%, Leeds 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Wolves's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.12 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Wolves (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leeds (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights