West Ham 1-1 Tottenham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Tottenham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 35 sees Tottenham travel to London Stadium to take on West Ham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L D L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, West Ham have posted 3W 3D 4L at London Stadium — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Tottenham — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Tottenham have gone 3W 0D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: West Ham 0.90 PPG, Tottenham 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, West Ham have won 2, Tottenham 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2024, ended 1–4 with Tottenham winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
West Ham trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
Tottenham trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 65% and Tottenham 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (West Ham 60% | Tottenham 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.56 xG and Tottenham 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.840 / defence 1.109 | Tottenham attack 1.048 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.473 / away 1.399. Tottenham bring a strong defensive rating of 1.263 — this is suppressing West Ham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 72 West Ham games / 72 Tottenham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 37% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 40%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.70 | Draw 4.35 | Tottenham 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.19. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.19 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.56 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Tottenham as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.19 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: West Ham 50% | Tottenham 50%.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Tottenham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 37% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 64% | xG West Ham 1.56 / Tottenham 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.840 / def 1.109 | Tottenham attack 1.048 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.473 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.63
Tottenham xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Tottenham kick off?
West Ham vs Tottenham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
West Ham 1 - 1 Tottenham.
Where is West Ham vs Tottenham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Tottenham part of?
West Ham vs Tottenham is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 37% chance of winning, Tottenham a 40% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both West Ham and Tottenham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Tottenham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
Record (7 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 2 | Tottenham 3W.
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in?
West Ham (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-L-D-L. Tottenham (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.84) and Tottenham's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Tottenham's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
37%
2.71
23%
4.26
40%
2.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.19
1.63
Tottenham xG
2.71
37%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.52
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
20%
5.08
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
7%
13.77
8%
12.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 8.2 | 6.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.3 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are West Ham and Tottenham expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for West Ham and 1.63 for Tottenham, a combined total of 3.19.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Tottenham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 23W 19D 30L record — L-D-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Tottenham's form line: 31W 10D 31L from 72 games, 1.43 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.22 PPG, Tottenham on 1.43. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.33 PPG from 36 outings (12W 12D 12L).
On the road, Tottenham have gone 12W 7D 17L from 36 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
West Ham are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Tottenham are on 1.89 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Tottenham in 67%.
Last 72 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Current Season
Tottenham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Tottenham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 23W 19D 30L in their last 72 games (1.22 PPG), while Tottenham have gone 31W 10D 31L in their last 72 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Tottenham away?
West Ham's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.33 PPG; Tottenham away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
West Ham's record when hosting Tottenham specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
West Ham
3
Draws
4
Tottenham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Tottenham?
From 10 meetings on record, West Ham have won 3, Tottenham have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Tottenham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Tottenham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 61%, Tottenham 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for West Ham and 67% for Tottenham. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: West Ham have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Tottenham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Tottenham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of West Ham's games and 53% of Tottenham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Tottenham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of West Ham's matches and 67% of Tottenham's.
West Ham and Tottenham share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham and Tottenham finished level at 1-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 35, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.56 xG and Tottenham 1.63 xG, a combined 3.19. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.84 / defence 1.11 against Tottenham attack 1.05 / defence 1.26, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 37% | Draw 23% | Tottenham 40%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 60%, Tottenham 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Tottenham's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.22 PPG, Tottenham 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.