🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Fulham 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Fulham 3-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.11 xG and Fulham 1.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Fulham attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 19% | Draw 26% | Fulham 55%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 66%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.29 PPG, Fulham 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights