West Ham 3-2 Fulham – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fulham at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this West Ham vs Fulham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Fulham make the trip to London Stadium to face West Ham in Premier League, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
West Ham have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for West Ham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at London Stadium, West Ham have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Fulham (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Fulham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Fulham have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for West Ham, 1.50 for Fulham — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — West Ham register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Fulham in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: West Ham 2W, Fulham 2W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 14 Sep 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
West Ham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%.
Fulham goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — West Ham 67% and Fulham 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 66% | Fulham 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.11 xG and Fulham 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 0.896 / defence 1.262 | Fulham attack 1.033 / defence 0.849. League average goals — home 1.462 / away 1.507. Data: 58 West Ham games / 58 Fulham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: West Ham 19% | Draw 26% | Fulham 55%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Fulham 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Fulham (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.11 / 1.96) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fulham at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: West Ham 70% | Fulham 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Fulham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 14 Jan 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 19% | Draw 26% | Fulham 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG West Ham 1.11 / Fulham 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 0.896 / def 1.262 | Fulham attack 1.033 / def 0.849 | league avg home 1.462 / away 1.507 • Poisson stance: Fulham (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Fulham xG
60%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does West Ham vs Fulham kick off?
West Ham vs Fulham kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 14 January 2025 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Fulham?
West Ham 3 - 2 Fulham.
Where is West Ham vs Fulham being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Fulham part of?
West Ham vs Fulham is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Fulham?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 19% chance of winning, Fulham a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Fulham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Fulham?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both West Ham and Fulham will score (BTTS).
Will West Ham vs Fulham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Fulham?
Record (5 meetings): West Ham 2W | Draws 1 | Fulham 2W.
What form are West Ham and Fulham in?
West Ham (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-L. Fulham (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from West Ham's attack rating (0.90) and Fulham's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.11 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fulham's attack (1.03x) against West Ham's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fulham Win
19%
5.25
26%
3.87
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.08
1.96
Fulham xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.49
Clean Sheet
14%
7.13
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
3%
37.40
18%
5.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.1 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Fulham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are West Ham and Fulham expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for West Ham and 1.96 for Fulham, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Fulham?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 58 outings, West Ham have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 20W 15D 23L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for West Ham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fulham's form line: 20W 17D 21L from 58 games, 1.33 PPG, last five D-D-W-D-D. The sample for Fulham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for West Ham against 1.33 for Fulham. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, West Ham have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (9W 10D 9L).
On the road, Fulham have gone 7W 10D 11L from 28 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
West Ham are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; Fulham are on 1.47 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 58 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Fulham
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are West Ham and Fulham in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 20W 15D 23L in their last 58 games (1.29 PPG), while Fulham have gone 20W 17D 21L in their last 58 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Fulham away?
West Ham's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.32 PPG; Fulham away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fulham won 5-0 on 10 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, West Ham have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fulham — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
4
West Ham
1
Draws
3
Fulham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Fulham?
From 8 meetings on record, West Ham have won 4, Fulham have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Fulham last play each other?
They last met on 4 March 2026, when Fulham 0-1 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Fulham?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 64%, Fulham 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (West Ham) and 54% (Fulham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Fulham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when West Ham play Fulham?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of West Ham's games and 61% of Fulham's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is West Ham vs Fulham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of West Ham's matches and 54% of Fulham's.
Shock result as West Ham defy the odds to beat Fulham 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
West Ham beat Fulham 3-2 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.11 xG and Fulham 1.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. West Ham beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.90 / defence 1.26 against Fulham attack 1.03 / defence 0.85, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 19% | Draw 26% | Fulham 55%, with Fulham to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a West Ham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 66%, Fulham 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Fulham's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.29 PPG, Fulham 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Fulham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.68 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.