🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as West Ham edge out Everton 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

West Ham beat Everton 2-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.37 xG and Everton 1.27 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.08 / defence 1.00 against Everton attack 1.00 / defence 0.91, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 38% | Draw 29% | Everton 33%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 54%, Everton 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Everton's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — West Ham 1.07 PPG, Everton 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the West Ham win broke the near-deadlock. Everton (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights