West Ham 0-1 Everton – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as West Ham face Everton.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
West Ham welcome Everton to London Stadium in Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
West Ham — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
West Ham at home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Everton have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Everton's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (West Ham) versus 1.00 (Everton). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of West Ham's games and 60% of Everton's (from West Ham's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 4 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for West Ham, 1 for Everton and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Scoring has been limited in the 4 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 21 Jan 2023, ended West Ham 2–0 Everton — a West Ham win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
West Ham in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 96% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Everton in-play and half-time data (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — West Ham 51% versus Everton 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (West Ham 47% | Everton 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects West Ham 1.80 xG and Everton 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: West Ham attack 1.071 / defence 1.014 | Everton attack 0.943 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.605 / away 1.379. Data: built from West Ham's last 47 games and Everton's last 47.
Result probabilities: West Ham 49% | Draw 23% | Everton 28%. Fair-value odds: West Ham 2.05 | Draw 4.34 | Everton 3.56. West Ham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.80 / 1.32) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, West Ham are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (West Ham's last 10 home games and Everton's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 4 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: West Ham 70% (last 10 home games) | Everton 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: West Ham vs Everton | Competition: Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: London Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 29 October 2023 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: West Ham 49% | Draw 23% | Everton 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% (Under 40%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG West Ham 1.80 / Everton 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: West Ham attack 1.071 / def 1.014 | Everton attack 0.943 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.605 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: West Ham (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
West Ham xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Everton xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ West Ham vs Everton FAQs
What time does West Ham vs Everton kick off?
West Ham vs Everton kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Sunday 29 October 2023 at London Stadium.
What was the final score in West Ham vs Everton?
West Ham 0 - 1 Everton.
Where is West Ham vs Everton being played?
The match is being played at London Stadium.
What competition is West Ham vs Everton part of?
West Ham vs Everton is a Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win West Ham vs Everton?
Our statistical model gives West Ham a 49% chance of winning, Everton a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in West Ham vs Everton?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both West Ham and Everton will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will West Ham vs Everton have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates West Ham's attack at 1.07x the league average against Everton's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 1.80 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Everton's attack versus West Ham's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from West Ham's last 47 games and Everton's last 47 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
49%
2.05
23%
4.34
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
West Ham xG
Total xG
3.12
1.32
Everton xG
2.05
49%
Home win
4.34
23%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.58
Clean Sheet
27%
3.74
16%
6.08
Win to Nil
13%
7.65
5%
21.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.5 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.5 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ West Ham vs Everton Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for West Ham vs Everton?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are West Ham and Everton expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for West Ham and 1.32 for Everton, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for West Ham vs Everton?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
West Ham come into this having played 47 games, going 15W 9D 23L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Everton sit at 0.91 PPG from 47 outings (10W 13D 24L), a run that reads L-W-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: West Ham on 1.15 PPG, Everton on 0.91. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
West Ham's home form reads 10W 5D 8L across their last 23 home games, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Everton have taken 0.83 points per game from their last 23 away games (3W 10D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, West Ham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
West Ham are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Everton are on 0.91 scored and 1.51 conceded.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
West Ham
Blended
Everton
Blended
West Ham (Home) vs Everton (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
West Ham
Blended
Everton
Blended
❓ West Ham vs Everton Form FAQs
What form are West Ham and Everton in coming into this match?
West Ham have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 games (1.15 PPG), while Everton have gone 10W 13D 24L in their last 47 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — West Ham at home or Everton away?
West Ham's home record (1.52 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — West Ham at home: 1.52 PPG; Everton away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 25 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
West Ham's record when hosting Everton specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
West Ham
3
Draws
2
Everton
Recent Meetings
❓ West Ham vs Everton H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between West Ham and Everton?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, West Ham have won 5, Everton have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did West Ham and Everton last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2026: West Ham 2-1 Everton.
Who has won more matches between West Ham and Everton?
West Ham have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
West Ham are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 96% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Everton are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — West Ham 52%, Everton 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (West Ham) and 48% (Everton).
On the defensive side: West Ham keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Everton in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = West Ham home games / Everton away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ West Ham vs Everton Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in West Ham and Everton matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of West Ham's recent matches and 52% of Everton's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are West Ham and Everton matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of West Ham's recent games and 48% of Everton's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do West Ham and Everton matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 96% of West Ham's recent matches and 74% of Everton's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat West Ham 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Everton beat West Ham 0-1 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.80 xG and Everton 1.32 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. West Ham fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Everton attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it West Ham 49% | Draw 23% | Everton 28%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual Everton win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 47%, Everton 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
West Ham's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Everton's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — West Ham 1.15 PPG, Everton 0.91 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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