Bournemouth 2-1 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bournemouth at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bournemouth face Burnley.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bournemouth welcome Burnley to Vitality Stadium in Premier League (matchday 10). Kick-off is Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bournemouth have gone 0W 3D 7L — a 0.30 PPG return. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
At home, Bournemouth have gone 1W 2D 7L in their last 10 home games (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Burnley stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
When travelling, Burnley have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bournemouth at 0.30 PPG versus Burnley's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Bournemouth trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Burnley trading profile (last 47 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bournemouth 40% versus Burnley 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bournemouth 51% | Burnley 60%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Bournemouth surrender their half-time lead 54% of the time, while Burnley have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bournemouth 1.16 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bournemouth attack 0.641 / defence 1.146 | Burnley attack 0.701 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.566 / away 1.393. Bournemouth's attack rating of 0.641 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Burnley's attack rating of 0.701 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.12. Data: built from Bournemouth's last 47 games and Burnley's last 9.
Result probabilities: Bournemouth 37% | Draw 28% | Burnley 35%. Fair-value odds: Bournemouth 2.71 | Draw 3.51 | Burnley 2.89. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bournemouth as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bournemouth offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.28 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 60% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bournemouth 40% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bournemouth vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 10 | Venue: Vitality Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 28 October 2023 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bournemouth 37% | Draw 28% | Burnley 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% (Under 60%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Bournemouth 1.16 / Burnley 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Bournemouth attack 0.641 / def 1.146 | Burnley attack 0.701 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.566 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: Bournemouth (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Bournemouth xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Burnley xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bournemouth vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Bournemouth vs Burnley kick off?
Bournemouth vs Burnley kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Saturday 28 October 2023 at Vitality Stadium.
What was the final score in Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Bournemouth 2 - 1 Burnley.
Where is Bournemouth vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Vitality Stadium.
What competition is Bournemouth vs Burnley part of?
Bournemouth vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 10) (England).
Who is favourite to win Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Bournemouth a 37% chance of winning, Burnley a 35% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Bournemouth the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Bournemouth and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Bournemouth vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (60%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Bournemouth's attack at 0.64x the league average against Burnley's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.16 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Burnley's attack versus Bournemouth's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bournemouth's last 47 games and Burnley's last 9 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bournemouth Win
37%
2.71
28%
3.51
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Bournemouth xG
Total xG
2.28
1.12
Burnley xG
2.71
37%
Home win
3.51
28%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
33%
3.06
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.31
11%
9.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.7 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bournemouth vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Bournemouth and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Bournemouth and 1.12 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Bournemouth vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bournemouth's recent record stands at 11W 9D 27L from 47 games, a 0.89 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-L in the last five.
Burnley, meanwhile, have gone 27W 11D 9L across 47 games — 1.96 PPG, with L-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Burnley by 1.07 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bournemouth heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Bournemouth have managed 5W 6D 12L from their last 23 home games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Burnley's away record stands at 12W 8D 3L across their last 23 away games, a 1.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Burnley come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bournemouth are averaging 0.91 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.70 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bournemouth
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Bournemouth (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bournemouth
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Bournemouth vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Bournemouth and Burnley in coming into this match?
Bournemouth have gone 11W 9D 27L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Burnley have gone 27W 11D 9L in their last 47 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bournemouth at home or Burnley away?
Burnley's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bournemouth at home: 0.91 PPG; Burnley away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Bournemouth or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bournemouth have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Burnley in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 4 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 14 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Bournemouth's record when hosting Burnley specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Bournemouth
2
Draws
0
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Bournemouth vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bournemouth and Burnley?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bournemouth have won 2, Burnley have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bournemouth and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 14 March 2026: Burnley 0-0 Bournemouth.
Who has won more matches between Bournemouth and Burnley?
Bournemouth have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bournemouth are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bournemouth 44%, Burnley 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Bournemouth) and 48% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Burnley in 35%; Bournemouth have failed to score in 48% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bournemouth home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bournemouth vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bournemouth and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 56% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bournemouth and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Bournemouth's recent games and 48% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bournemouth and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Bournemouth's recent matches and 65% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bournemouth edge out Burnley 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bournemouth beat Burnley 2-1 at Vitality Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bournemouth 1.16 xG and Burnley 1.12 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bournemouth beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bournemouth attack 0.64 / defence 1.15 against Burnley attack 0.70 / defence 1.16, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bournemouth 37% | Draw 28% | Burnley 35%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bournemouth 51%, Burnley 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bournemouth's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Burnley's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 0.89. Form was overturned, with Bournemouth winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Burnley (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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