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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chelsea run riot with a 1-5 hammering of West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat West Ham 1-5 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.27 xG and Chelsea 1.25 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Chelsea outscored their 1.25 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.93 / defence 1.06 against Chelsea attack 0.94 / defence 0.93, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 37% | Draw 27% | Chelsea 36%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Chelsea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 51%, Chelsea 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Chelsea's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Chelsea arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was vindicated by the result. West Ham (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights