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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Aston Villa edge out West Ham 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat West Ham 2-3 at London Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting West Ham 1.24 xG and Aston Villa 1.89 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Aston Villa outscored their 1.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of West Ham attack 0.84 / defence 1.32 against Aston Villa attack 1.11 / defence 0.94, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it West Ham 25% | Draw 23% | Aston Villa 53%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (West Ham 53%, Aston Villa 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

West Ham's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Aston Villa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was vindicated by the result. West Ham (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights