Tottenham 3-1 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 30 sees West Ham travel to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium to take on Tottenham. The game is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022, 16:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Tottenham — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W L W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Tottenham have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Premier League games this season, West Ham have recorded 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Premier League this season, West Ham have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Tottenham 1.50 PPG, West Ham 1.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Tottenham, 1 for West Ham and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with West Ham winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Tottenham in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at home): BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
West Ham in-play tendencies (28 games, 13 at away): BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 36% versus West Ham 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 57% | West Ham 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.49 xG and West Ham 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.252 / defence 1.140 | West Ham attack 0.884 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.094 / away 1.333. Tottenham carry an above-average attack strength of 1.252 — their λ of 1.49 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 28 Tottenham games / 29 West Ham games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 41% | Draw 25% | West Ham 34%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | West Ham 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Tottenham are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Tottenham 40% | West Ham 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 41% | Draw 25% | West Ham 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Tottenham 1.49 / West Ham 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.252 / def 1.140 | West Ham attack 0.884 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.094 / away 1.333 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.34
West Ham xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs West Ham kick off?
Tottenham vs West Ham kicked off at 16:30 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs West Ham?
Tottenham 3 - 1 West Ham.
Where is Tottenham vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs West Ham part of?
Tottenham vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 41% chance of winning, West Ham a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Tottenham and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and West Ham?
Record (1 meetings): Tottenham 0W | Draws 0 | West Ham 1W.
What form are Tottenham and West Ham in?
Tottenham (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. West Ham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Tottenham's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.49. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.99
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.83
1.34
West Ham xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.99
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
11%
9.41
8%
12.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 7.9 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Tottenham and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.34 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Tottenham come into this having played 28 games, going 15W 3D 10L for 1.71 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W.
On the other side, West Ham sit at 1.61 PPG from 28 outings (13W 6D 9L), a run that reads D-D-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Tottenham on 1.71 PPG, West Ham on 1.61. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Tottenham's home form reads 8W 1D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, West Ham have taken 1.38 points per game from 13 outings (5W 3D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.57 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 61%.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Current Season
West Ham
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and West Ham in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 15W 3D 10L in their last 28 games (1.71 PPG), while West Ham have gone 13W 6D 9L in their last 28 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or West Ham away?
Tottenham's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.92 PPG; West Ham away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Tottenham or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, West Ham in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and West Ham runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 17 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Tottenham won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Tottenham
3
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and West Ham?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 4, West Ham have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 17 January 2026, when Tottenham 1-2 West Ham.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and West Ham?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 31%, West Ham 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 69% (Tottenham) and 46% (West Ham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; West Ham in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Tottenham's recent matches and 46% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Tottenham's matches and 46% of West Ham's.
Tottenham cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over West Ham.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat West Ham 3-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.49 xG and West Ham 1.34 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.25 / defence 1.14 against West Ham attack 0.88 / defence 1.08, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 41% | Draw 25% | West Ham 34%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 57%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
West Ham's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.71 PPG, West Ham 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm. West Ham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.