Newcastle 1-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Newcastle at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Newcastle vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Crystal Palace in Premier League, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Wednesday 20 April 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Newcastle (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Newcastle's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at St. James' Park this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Crystal Palace have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Crystal Palace's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Newcastle. A 0.60 PPG lead over Crystal Palace (1.90 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Newcastle lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Oct 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Newcastle — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Crystal Palace — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 61% versus Crystal Palace 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 45% | Crystal Palace 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.33 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.028 / defence 1.092 | Crystal Palace attack 0.833 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.107 / away 1.346. Data: 32 Newcastle games / 31 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Newcastle 39% | Draw 27% | Crystal Palace 34%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Crystal Palace 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.55. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.55 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Newcastle if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.55 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Newcastle 60% | Crystal Palace 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Apr 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 39% | Draw 27% | Crystal Palace 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Newcastle 1.33 / Crystal Palace 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.028 / def 1.092 | Crystal Palace attack 0.833 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.107 / away 1.346 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Newcastle vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 19:45 on Wednesday 20 April 2022 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
Newcastle 1 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Newcastle vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Crystal Palace part of?
Newcastle vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 39% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Newcastle and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Newcastle vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Newcastle 0W | Draws 1 | Crystal Palace 0W.
What form are Newcastle and Crystal Palace in?
Newcastle (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.03) and Crystal Palace's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Crystal Palace's attack (0.83x) against Newcastle's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 32/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
39%
2.56
27%
3.75
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.55
1.22
Crystal Palace xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
9%
10.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Newcastle and 1.22 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Newcastle's recent record stands at 9W 10D 12L from 31 games, a 1.19 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Crystal Palace, meanwhile, have gone 8W 13D 10L across 31 games — 1.19 PPG, with D-W-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Newcastle against 1.19 for Crystal Palace. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 6W 6D 3L from 15 games — 1.60 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.19 PPG overall — Newcastle are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Crystal Palace's away record stands at 3W 6D 6L across 15 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Newcastle are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Newcastle have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Crystal Palace
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Newcastle and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 9W 10D 12L in their last 31 games (1.19 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 8W 13D 10L in their last 31 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Crystal Palace away?
Newcastle's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.60 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Newcastle won 5-0 on 16 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Newcastle have gone 4W 1D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Crystal Palace — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Newcastle
4
Draws
2
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Newcastle have won 4, Crystal Palace have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Crystal Palace 2-1 Newcastle.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Crystal Palace?
Newcastle have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 67%, Crystal Palace 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Newcastle) and 53% (Crystal Palace).
On the defensive side: Crystal Palace in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Newcastle play Crystal Palace?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Newcastle's games and 47% of Crystal Palace's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Newcastle vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Newcastle's recent games and 53% of Crystal Palace's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Crystal Palace 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Newcastle beat Crystal Palace 1-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.33 xG and Crystal Palace 1.22 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Crystal Palace landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.03 / defence 1.09 against Crystal Palace attack 0.83 / defence 1.17, drawn from 32/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 39% | Draw 27% | Crystal Palace 34%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 45%, Crystal Palace 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.19 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.