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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 2.02 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.88 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.15 / defence 1.21, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 42% | Draw 21% | Nottingham Forest 37%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 73%, Nottingham Forest 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.47 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights