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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Newcastle edge out Tottenham 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Tottenham 1-2 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.88 xG and Newcastle 2.32 xG, a combined 4.20. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.37 / defence 1.30 against Newcastle attack 1.20 / defence 0.93, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 31% | Draw 22% | Newcastle 47%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 79%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 60% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 78% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 75%, Newcastle 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (57 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Newcastle's trading profile (57 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Tottenham 1.58 PPG, Newcastle 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights