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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Tottenham and Leeds share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham and Leeds finished level at 1-1 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 36, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.37 xG and Leeds 1.66 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.89 / defence 1.41 against Leeds attack 0.96 / defence 1.06, drawn from 73/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 31% | Draw 26% | Leeds 43%, with Leeds to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Leeds 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Tottenham (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights