Tottenham 3-0 Crystal Palace – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Tottenham at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Tottenham vs Crystal Palace fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 19 as Tottenham welcome Crystal Palace to Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Tottenham have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Tottenham, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Tottenham's home record at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium: 6W 1D 2L from 9 Premier League appearances (2.11 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 9 games (44%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Crystal Palace stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Crystal Palace, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Crystal Palace's away record: 1W 3D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Tottenham) versus 1.30 (Crystal Palace). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Tottenham have won 0, Crystal Palace 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–3 with Crystal Palace winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Tottenham in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at home): BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Crystal Palace in-play and half-time data (15 games, 7 at away): BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Tottenham 33% versus Crystal Palace 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Tottenham 60% | Crystal Palace 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Tottenham 1.49 xG and Crystal Palace 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Tottenham attack 1.029 / defence 1.023 | Crystal Palace attack 0.836 / defence 1.228. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.259. Crystal Palace bring a strong defensive rating of 1.228 — this is suppressing Tottenham's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Tottenham games / 17 Crystal Palace games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 27%. Fair-value odds: Tottenham 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Crystal Palace 3.70. Tottenham hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Tottenham at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Tottenham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Tottenham 33% | Crystal Palace 38% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Tottenham vs Crystal Palace | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Tottenham Hotspur Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Tottenham 1.49 / Crystal Palace 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Tottenham attack 1.029 / def 1.023 | Crystal Palace attack 0.836 / def 1.228 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Tottenham (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Tottenham xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Crystal Palace xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Tottenham vs Crystal Palace kick off?
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What was the final score in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Tottenham 3 - 0 Crystal Palace.
Where is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace being played?
The match is being played at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
What competition is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace part of?
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our statistical model gives Tottenham a 47% chance of winning, Crystal Palace a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Tottenham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Tottenham and Crystal Palace will score (BTTS).
Will Tottenham vs Crystal Palace have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Crystal Palace?
Record (1 meetings): Tottenham 0W | Draws 0 | Crystal Palace 1W.
What form are Tottenham and Crystal Palace in?
Tottenham (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-W-W-D. Crystal Palace (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Tottenham's attack rating (1.03) and Crystal Palace's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Crystal Palace's attack versus Tottenham's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Tottenham Win
47%
2.15
26%
3.83
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Tottenham xG
Total xG
2.56
1.08
Crystal Palace xG
2.15
47%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
16%
6.31
6%
16.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Tottenham and Crystal Palace expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Tottenham and 1.08 for Crystal Palace, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Tottenham vs Crystal Palace?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 15 outings, Tottenham have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 8W 2D 5L record — D-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Tottenham is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Crystal Palace's form line: 4W 7D 4L from 15 games, 1.27 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Crystal Palace is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Tottenham are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Crystal Palace.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Tottenham have posted 1.86 PPG from 7 outings (4W 1D 2L).
On the road, Crystal Palace have gone 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Crystal Palace's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Tottenham come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Tottenham are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; Crystal Palace are on 1.60 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Crystal Palace in 60%.
Defensively: Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 15 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Tottenham
Blended
Crystal Palace
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Tottenham and Crystal Palace in coming into this match?
Tottenham have gone 8W 2D 5L in their last 15 games (1.73 PPG), while Crystal Palace have gone 4W 7D 4L in their last 15 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Tottenham at home or Crystal Palace away?
Tottenham's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Tottenham at home: 1.86 PPG; Crystal Palace away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Tottenham or Crystal Palace been keeping clean sheets recently?
Tottenham have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Crystal Palace in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Tottenham and Crystal Palace runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 5 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jan 2023, when Tottenham won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Tottenham's record when hosting Crystal Palace specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Tottenham
0
Draws
4
Crystal Palace
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Tottenham and Crystal Palace?
From 10 meetings on record, Tottenham have won 6, Crystal Palace have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Tottenham and Crystal Palace last play each other?
They last met on 5 March 2026, when Tottenham 1-3 Crystal Palace.
Who has won more matches between Tottenham and Crystal Palace?
Tottenham have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Tottenham 43%, Crystal Palace 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 86% for Tottenham and 57% for Crystal Palace. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 14% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Tottenham have failed to score in 29% of games; Crystal Palace in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Tottenham home games / Crystal Palace away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Tottenham play Crystal Palace?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Tottenham's recent matches and 43% of Crystal Palace's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Tottenham vs Crystal Palace usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Tottenham's matches and 57% of Crystal Palace's.
Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Crystal Palace.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Tottenham beat Crystal Palace 3-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.49 xG and Crystal Palace 1.08 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Crystal Palace landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 1.03 / defence 1.02 against Crystal Palace attack 0.84 / defence 1.23, drawn from 15/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Tottenham 47% | Draw 26% | Crystal Palace 27%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 60%, Crystal Palace 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Tottenham's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Crystal Palace's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.27. Form held, and they took the win. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line. Crystal Palace (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.