Norwich 0-5 Arsenal – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Arsenal at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Norwich vs Arsenal encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Norwich host Arsenal at Carrow Road in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 December 2021 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Norwich — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Norwich, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Norwich have posted 1W 2D 6L at Carrow Road — 0.56 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.56 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Arsenal stand at 7W 0D 3L from 10 Premier League matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Arsenal, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Arsenal's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 5L across 9 road games this term (1.11 PPG). Away from home they average 1.11 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.11 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Arsenal are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Norwich have won 0, Arsenal 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2021, ended 0–1 with Arsenal winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Norwich trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 65% of games.
Arsenal trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Norwich 35% versus Arsenal 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Norwich 53% | Arsenal 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Norwich 0.91 xG and Arsenal 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Norwich attack 0.561 / defence 1.223 | Arsenal attack 0.933 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.176 / away 1.259. Norwich's attack strength of 0.561 is below the league average — the 0.91 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Arsenal bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Norwich's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Norwich games / 18 Arsenal games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Norwich 24% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 49%. Fair-value odds: Norwich 4.17 | Draw 3.70 | Arsenal 2.04. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Arsenal offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Norwich 44% | Arsenal 33% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Norwich vs Arsenal | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Carrow Road • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Dec 2021, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Norwich 24% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 46% | xG Norwich 0.91 / Arsenal 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Norwich attack 0.561 / def 1.223 | Arsenal attack 0.933 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.176 / away 1.259 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.91
Norwich xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Arsenal xG
46%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Norwich vs Arsenal kick off?
Norwich vs Arsenal kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 December 2021 at Carrow Road.
What was the final score in Norwich vs Arsenal?
Norwich 0 - 5 Arsenal.
Where is Norwich vs Arsenal being played?
The match is being played at Carrow Road.
What competition is Norwich vs Arsenal part of?
Norwich vs Arsenal is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Norwich vs Arsenal?
Our statistical model gives Norwich a 24% chance of winning, Arsenal a 49% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Norwich vs Arsenal?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Norwich and Arsenal will score (BTTS).
Will Norwich vs Arsenal have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Arsenal?
Record (1 meetings): Norwich 0W | Draws 0 | Arsenal 1W.
What form are Norwich and Arsenal in?
Norwich (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Arsenal (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Norwich's attack rating (0.56) and Arsenal's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 0.91 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Arsenal's attack versus Norwich's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
24%
4.19
27%
3.71
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Norwich xG
Total xG
2.35
1.44
Arsenal xG
4.19
24%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
6%
17.63
20%
5.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 13.7 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.7 | 4.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Norwich vs Arsenal?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Norwich and Arsenal expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Norwich and 1.44 for Arsenal, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Norwich vs Arsenal?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Norwich's recent record stands at 2W 4D 11L from 17 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with D-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Norwich is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Arsenal, meanwhile, have gone 10W 2D 5L across 17 games — 1.88 PPG, with L-L-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Arsenal is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Arsenal by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Norwich heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Norwich have managed 1W 2D 5L from 8 games — 0.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Arsenal's away record stands at 3W 1D 4L across 8 trips, a 1.25 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.88 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Arsenal's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Norwich are averaging 0.47 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Arsenal are on 1.59 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Arsenal in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Norwich
Blended
Arsenal
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Norwich and Arsenal in coming into this match?
Norwich have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 games (0.59 PPG), while Arsenal have gone 10W 2D 5L in their last 17 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Norwich at home or Arsenal away?
Arsenal's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Norwich at home: 0.62 PPG; Arsenal away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Norwich or Arsenal been keeping clean sheets recently?
Norwich have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Arsenal in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 26 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Norwich
0
Draws
2
Arsenal
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Norwich and Arsenal?
From 2 meetings on record, Norwich have won 0, Arsenal have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Norwich and Arsenal last play each other?
They last met on 26 December 2021, when Norwich 0-5 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Norwich and Arsenal?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Norwich 50%, Arsenal 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Norwich) and 62% (Arsenal). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 12% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal in 38%; Norwich have failed to score in 50% of games; Arsenal in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Norwich home games / Arsenal away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Norwich play Arsenal?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Norwich's recent matches and 38% of Arsenal's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Norwich vs Arsenal usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Norwich's matches and 62% of Arsenal's.
Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Norwich.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Norwich 0-5 at Carrow Road, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Norwich 0.91 xG and Arsenal 1.44 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Norwich fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Arsenal outscored their 1.44 projection by 3.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Norwich attack 0.56 / defence 1.22 against Arsenal attack 0.93 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Norwich 24% | Draw 27% | Arsenal 49%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Norwich 53%, Arsenal 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Norwich's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 65% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Arsenal's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.59. Form held, and they took the win. Norwich (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.