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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burnley.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Burnley 3-0 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.67 xG and Burnley 1.34 xG, a combined 3.01. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Tottenham beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.97 / defence 1.16 against Burnley attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 45% | Draw 24% | Burnley 31%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 45%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 63%, Burnley 32%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Burnley's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 68% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Burnley arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Tottenham winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights