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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Arsenal run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Tottenham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Arsenal beat Tottenham 1-4 at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Tottenham 1.01 xG and Arsenal 1.72 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Arsenal outscored their 1.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Tottenham attack 0.90 / defence 1.16 against Arsenal attack 1.16 / defence 0.80, drawn from 64/65 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Tottenham 19% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 51%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Tottenham 64%, Arsenal 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Tottenham's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Arsenal's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. Tottenham (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights