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Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 3-0 hammering of West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat West Ham 3-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.23 xG and West Ham 1.59 xG, a combined 2.82. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. West Ham landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against West Ham attack 1.02 / defence 0.97, drawn from 0/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 30% | Draw 25% | West Ham 46%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sunderland win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, West Ham 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

West Ham's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Sunderland arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.21 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights