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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Nottingham Forest run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Sunderland.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Sunderland 0-5 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.15 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Nottingham Forest outscored their 1.23 projection by 3.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.82 / defence 0.92 against Nottingham Forest attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 33/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 32% | Draw 32% | Nottingham Forest 36%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Nottingham Forest 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights