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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sunderland edge out Newcastle 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Newcastle 1-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.67 xG and Newcastle 1.41 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Newcastle landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Newcastle attack 1.03 / defence 0.98, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 44% | Draw 24% | Newcastle 32%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Newcastle 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.

Newcastle's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.53 PPG, Newcastle 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights