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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Sunderland and Leeds share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 18, as Sunderland and Leeds drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 2.03 xG and Leeds 0.97 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Sunderland fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 1.03 / defence 0.96 against Leeds attack 0.80 / defence 1.29, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 62% | Draw 21% | Leeds 17%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 43%, Leeds 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (63 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Leeds's trading profile (63 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.60 PPG, Leeds 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights