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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fulham cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Sunderland.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fulham beat Sunderland 1-3 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.56 xG and Fulham 0.89 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Fulham outscored their 0.89 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 0.81 against Fulham attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 26/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 50% | Draw 32% | Fulham 18%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Fulham win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Fulham 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Fulham's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.47 PPG, Fulham 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fulham win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fulham (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights