Sunderland 3-0 Burnley – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sunderland at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sunderland vs Burnley encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sunderland and Burnley meet at Stadium of Light in Premier League (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Monday 2 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time.
Current Form
Sunderland's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
In front of their own supporters, Sunderland have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Sunderland are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Burnley (all games): 0W 5D 5L across their last 10 — 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Burnley have posted 1W 2D 7L from their last 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Sunderland's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Burnley's 0.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from Sunderland's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of Sunderland's games and 90% of Burnley's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Burnley edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 23 Aug 2025, ended Sunderland 0–2 Burnley — a Burnley win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Burnley half-time and goal-timing data (last 69 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 41% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sunderland 51% versus Burnley 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sunderland 44% | Burnley 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sunderland 1.79 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sunderland attack 0.936 / defence 0.875 | Burnley attack 0.856 / defence 1.296. League average goals — home 1.478 / away 1.271. Burnley's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sunderland's projected output up. Data: built from Sunderland's last 23 games and Burnley's last 23.
Result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 28% | Burnley 17%. Fair-value odds: Sunderland 1.84 | Draw 3.52 | Burnley 5.85. Sunderland hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sunderland at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sunderland if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.75 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Sunderland's last 10 home games and Burnley's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sunderland 70% (last 10 home games) | Burnley 90% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sunderland vs Burnley | Competition: Premier League, matchday 24 | Venue: Stadium of Light • Kick-off: Monday 2 February 2026 at 20:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sunderland 54% | Draw 28% | Burnley 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Sunderland 1.79 / Burnley 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Sunderland attack 0.936 / def 0.875 | Burnley attack 0.856 / def 1.296 | league avg home 1.478 / away 1.271 • Poisson stance: Sunderland (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Sunderland xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Burnley xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley FAQs
What time does Sunderland vs Burnley kick off?
Sunderland vs Burnley kicked off at 20:00 UK time on Monday 2 February 2026 at Stadium of Light.
What was the final score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Sunderland 3 - 0 Burnley.
Where is Sunderland vs Burnley being played?
The match is being played at Stadium of Light.
What competition is Sunderland vs Burnley part of?
Sunderland vs Burnley is a Premier League fixture (matchday 24) (England).
Who is favourite to win Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our statistical model gives Sunderland a 54% chance of winning, Burnley a 17% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sunderland the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sunderland and Burnley will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Sunderland vs Burnley have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sunderland's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Burnley's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.79. Flip it around — Burnley's attack (0.86x) against Sunderland's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from Sunderland's last 23 games and Burnley's last 23 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sunderland Win
54%
1.84
28%
3.52
17%
5.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Sunderland xG
Total xG
2.75
0.95
Burnley xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
5.85
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
17%
6.01
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
3%
35.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.0 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.8 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Sunderland and Burnley expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Sunderland and 0.95 for Burnley, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Sunderland vs Burnley?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 69 outings, Sunderland have picked up 1.55 PPG on a 28W 23D 18L record — D-D-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Burnley's form line: 31W 22D 16L from 69 games, 1.67 PPG, last five L-L-D-D-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.55 PPG for Sunderland against 1.67 for Burnley. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sunderland have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 33 home games (16W 13D 4L).
On the road, Burnley have gone 14W 9D 10L from their last 33 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sunderland are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Burnley are on 1.36 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Burnley in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 69 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sunderland
Blended
Burnley
Blended
Sunderland (Home) vs Burnley (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sunderland
Blended
Burnley
Blended
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley Form FAQs
What form are Sunderland and Burnley in coming into this match?
Sunderland have gone 28W 23D 18L in their last 69 games (1.55 PPG), while Burnley have gone 31W 22D 16L in their last 69 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sunderland at home or Burnley away?
Sunderland's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sunderland at home: 1.85 PPG; Burnley away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Sunderland or Burnley been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sunderland have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Burnley in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Championship, Premier League. The most recent was on 2 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sunderland won Sunderland 3-0 Burnley on 2 Feb 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sunderland have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Burnley — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Sunderland
2
Draws
2
Burnley
Recent Meetings
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sunderland and Burnley?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sunderland have won 2, Burnley have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sunderland and Burnley last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 2 February 2026: Sunderland 3-0 Burnley.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Burnley are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sunderland 54%, Burnley 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Sunderland) and 42% (Burnley).
On the defensive side: Sunderland keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Burnley in 46%; Burnley in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sunderland home games / Burnley away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sunderland vs Burnley Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sunderland and Burnley matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Sunderland's recent matches and 42% of Burnley's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sunderland and Burnley matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Sunderland's recent games and 42% of Burnley's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sunderland and Burnley matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Sunderland's recent matches and 67% of Burnley's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sunderland run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Burnley.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Burnley 3-0 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.79 xG and Burnley 0.95 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Burnley landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.94 / defence 0.88 against Burnley attack 0.86 / defence 1.30, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sunderland 54% | Draw 28% | Burnley 17%, with Sunderland to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 44%, Burnley 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sunderland's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Burnley's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.55 PPG, Burnley 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Burnley (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.30 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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