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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Brighton edge out Sunderland 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Brighton beat Sunderland 0-1 at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 1.18 xG and Brighton 1.21 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sunderland fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.91 / defence 0.96 against Brighton attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 34% | Draw 31% | Brighton 35%, with Brighton to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 42%, Brighton 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Brighton's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Sunderland 1.46 PPG, Brighton 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Brighton win broke the near-deadlock. Sunderland (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward. Brighton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights