🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Sunderland and Arsenal share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadium of Light, Regular Season - 11, as Sunderland and Arsenal drew 2-2 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Sunderland 0.90 xG and Arsenal 1.24 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Sunderland beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sunderland attack 0.98 / defence 0.94 against Arsenal attack 1.12 / defence 0.61, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Sunderland 27% | Draw 29% | Arsenal 44%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sunderland 40%, Arsenal 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Sunderland's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Arsenal's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 2.06 PPG against 1.58. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sunderland (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Arsenal (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights