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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Tottenham run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Southampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Tottenham beat Southampton 0-5 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 1.01 xG and Tottenham 2.28 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Southampton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Tottenham outscored their 2.28 projection by 2.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.75 / defence 1.48 against Tottenham attack 1.09 / defence 0.82, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 14% | Draw 21% | Tottenham 65%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 57%, Tottenham 76%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Tottenham's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Southampton 1.55 PPG, Tottenham 1.62 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Tottenham win broke the near-deadlock. Southampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Tottenham (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.60 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights