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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Southampton and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 30, as Southampton and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 0.60 xG and Crystal Palace 2.57 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Crystal Palace landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.61 / defence 1.68 against Crystal Palace attack 1.05 / defence 0.68, drawn from 29/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 6% | Draw 14% | Crystal Palace 80%, with Crystal Palace to win its most likely call at 80%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 62%, Crystal Palace 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Southampton 1.26 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights