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Bournemouth cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Southampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Bournemouth beat Southampton 1-3 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 0.96 xG and Bournemouth 3.33 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.62 / defence 1.68 against Bournemouth attack 1.29 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/62 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 7% | Draw 12% | Bournemouth 82%, with Bournemouth to win its most likely call at 82%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 60%, Bournemouth 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (62 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Bournemouth's trading profile (62 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Southampton 1.39 PPG, Bournemouth 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bournemouth win broke the near-deadlock. Southampton (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.66 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bournemouth (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.66 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights