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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Aston Villa run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Southampton.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Aston Villa beat Southampton 0-3 at St. Mary's Stadium, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Southampton 0.96 xG and Aston Villa 2.19 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Southampton fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Aston Villa outscored their 2.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Southampton attack 0.63 / defence 1.59 against Aston Villa attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 31/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Southampton 15% | Draw 19% | Aston Villa 65%, with Aston Villa to win its most likely call at 65%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Southampton 62%, Aston Villa 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Southampton's trading profile (69 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Aston Villa's trading profile (69 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.26. Form held, and they took the win. Southampton (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.73 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aston Villa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights