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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Premier League · Regular Season - 32

Kick-off

Sat 12 Apr 2025

15:00

Venue

St. Mary's Stadium

Competition

Premier League

England

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Aston Villa Win

15%

Southampton

6.47

19%

Draw

5.17

65%

Aston Villa

1.53

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 2

10.2%

Away win

Most likely

1 – 2

9.9%

Away win

0 – 1

9.3%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.96

Southampton xG

Total xG

3.15

2.19

Aston Villa xG

15%
19%
65%
SouthamptonDrawAston Villa

6.47

15%

Home win

5.17

19%

Draw

1.53

65%

Away win

Goals Markets

82%

Over 1.5

1.22

18%

Under 1.5

5.56

61%

Over 2.5

1.64

39%

Under 2.5

2.56

39%

Over 3.5

2.56

61%

Under 3.5

1.64

21%

Over 4.5

4.76

79%

Under 4.5

1.27

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

55%

BTTS Yes

1.82

45%

BTTS No

2.22

Clean Sheet

11%

Southampton

8.92

38%

Aston Villa

2.62

Win to Nil

2%

Southampton

57.72

25%

Aston Villa

4.02

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 4.3 9.3 10.2 7.5 4.1 1.8
1 4.1 9.0 9.9 7.2 3.9 1.7
2 2.0 4.4 4.8 3.5 1.9 0.8
3 0.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.3
4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.1
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.965
λ Away (xG) 2.188
Total xG 3.153
League avg home goals 1.436
League avg away goals 1.419
Southampton attack strength 0.630
Southampton defence strength 1.587
Aston Villa attack strength 0.971
Aston Villa defence strength 1.067
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 31 / 69