Nottingham Forest 1-0 West Ham – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates West Ham at 39%, yet in-form Nottingham Forest provide a compelling counter-argument — this Nottingham Forest vs West Ham fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 2 as Nottingham Forest welcome West Ham to The City Ground. Kick-off is set for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Nottingham Forest have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Nottingham Forest have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at The City Ground, Nottingham Forest have gone 8W 1D 1L this season (10 games, 2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at The City Ground. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.90 — Nottingham Forest are significantly better at The City Ground than their overall form suggests.
West Ham — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. West Ham have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
West Ham's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Nottingham Forest are in the better shape of the two on current Premier League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
Nottingham Forest in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
West Ham in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nottingham Forest 44% versus West Ham 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nottingham Forest 44% | West Ham 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nottingham Forest 1.32 xG and West Ham 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nottingham Forest attack 0.860 / defence 1.150 | West Ham attack 1.017 / defence 0.996. League average goals — home 1.537 / away 1.230. Data: 1 Nottingham Forest games / 39 West Ham games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 27% | West Ham 39%. Fair-value odds: Nottingham Forest 2.94 | Draw 3.70 | West Ham 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is West Ham at 39% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Nottingham Forest (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on West Ham offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.75 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Nottingham Forest 40% | West Ham 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nottingham Forest vs West Ham | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: The City Ground • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 27% | West Ham 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Nottingham Forest 1.32 / West Ham 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Nottingham Forest attack 0.860 / def 1.150 | West Ham attack 1.017 / def 0.996 | league avg home 1.537 / away 1.230 • Poisson stance: West Ham (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Nottingham Forest xG
Expected Goals
1.44
West Ham xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nottingham Forest vs West Ham kick off?
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at The City Ground.
What was the final score in Nottingham Forest vs West Ham?
Nottingham Forest 1 - 0 West Ham.
Where is Nottingham Forest vs West Ham being played?
The match is being played at The City Ground.
What competition is Nottingham Forest vs West Ham part of?
Nottingham Forest vs West Ham is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Nottingham Forest vs West Ham?
Our statistical model gives Nottingham Forest a 34% chance of winning, West Ham a 39% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making West Ham the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nottingham Forest vs West Ham?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Nottingham Forest and West Ham will score (BTTS).
Will Nottingham Forest vs West Ham have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and West Ham?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Nottingham Forest and West Ham in?
Nottingham Forest (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. West Ham (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Nottingham Forest's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against West Ham's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.32. The same calculation in reverse, West Ham's attack versus Nottingham Forest's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
West Ham Win
34%
2.98
27%
3.65
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Nottingham Forest xG
Total xG
2.75
1.44
West Ham xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
27%
3.73
Win to Nil
8%
12.57
10%
9.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nottingham Forest vs West Ham?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Nottingham Forest and West Ham expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Nottingham Forest and 1.44 for West Ham, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Nottingham Forest vs West Ham?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 39 outings, Nottingham Forest have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 22W 9D 8L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Nottingham Forest, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
West Ham's form line: 16W 8D 15L from 39 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for West Ham, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Nottingham Forest are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against West Ham.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nottingham Forest have posted 2.21 PPG from 19 outings (13W 3D 3L).
On the road, West Ham have gone 7W 3D 9L from 19 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nottingham Forest come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nottingham Forest are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; West Ham are on 1.54 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: West Ham in 62%.
Defensively: Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nottingham Forest
Early Season
West Ham
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nottingham Forest and West Ham in coming into this match?
Nottingham Forest have gone 22W 9D 8L in their last 39 games (1.92 PPG), while West Ham have gone 16W 8D 15L in their last 39 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nottingham Forest at home or West Ham away?
Nottingham Forest's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nottingham Forest at home: 2.21 PPG; West Ham away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Nottingham Forest or West Ham been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nottingham Forest have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, West Ham in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Feb 2023, when West Ham won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nottingham Forest's record when hosting West Ham specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Nottingham Forest
0
Draws
3
West Ham
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nottingham Forest and West Ham?
From 8 meetings on record, Nottingham Forest have won 5, West Ham have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Nottingham Forest and West Ham last play each other?
They last met on 6 January 2026, when West Ham 1-2 Nottingham Forest.
Who has won more matches between Nottingham Forest and West Ham?
Nottingham Forest have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nottingham Forest are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nottingham Forest 42%, West Ham 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Nottingham Forest) and 53% (West Ham). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nottingham Forest keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; West Ham in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nottingham Forest home games / West Ham away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nottingham Forest play West Ham?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Nottingham Forest's recent matches and 47% of West Ham's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nottingham Forest vs West Ham usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Nottingham Forest's matches and 53% of West Ham's.
Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat West Ham 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nottingham Forest beat West Ham 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.32 xG and West Ham 1.44 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. West Ham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against West Ham attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 1/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 27% | West Ham 39%, with West Ham to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 44%, West Ham 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nottingham Forest's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
West Ham's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Nottingham Forest arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.44. Form held, and they took the win. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. West Ham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.