Arsenal 4-2 Leicester – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Arsenal at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Arsenal vs Leicester fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Emirates Stadium plays host to Arsenal versus Leicester in Premier League, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 13 August 2022 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Arsenal have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Arsenal have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Emirates Stadium, Arsenal have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Leicester (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Leicester have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Leicester's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Arsenal's favour (1.80 vs 1.30) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Arsenal register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Leicester in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Arsenal 2W, Leicester 0W, 0D.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Mar 2022, ended 2–0 with Arsenal winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Arsenal — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at home): BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Leicester — key trading statistics (39 games, 19 at away): BTTS occurs in 84% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Arsenal 41% versus Leicester 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Arsenal 56% | Leicester 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Arsenal 1.76 xG and Leicester 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Arsenal attack 1.146 / defence 0.930 | Leicester attack 1.063 / defence 1.031. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.305. Data: 39 Arsenal games / 39 Leicester games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Arsenal 49% | Draw 23% | Leicester 28%. Fair-value odds: Arsenal 2.04 | Draw 4.35 | Leicester 3.57. Arsenal hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.76 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Arsenal as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Arsenal if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 60% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Arsenal 70% | Leicester 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Arsenal vs Leicester | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Emirates Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Arsenal 49% | Draw 23% | Leicester 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG Arsenal 1.76 / Leicester 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Arsenal attack 1.146 / def 0.930 | Leicester attack 1.063 / def 1.031 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Arsenal (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Arsenal xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Leicester xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Arsenal vs Leicester kick off?
Arsenal vs Leicester kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Emirates Stadium.
What was the final score in Arsenal vs Leicester?
Arsenal 4 - 2 Leicester.
Where is Arsenal vs Leicester being played?
The match is being played at Emirates Stadium.
What competition is Arsenal vs Leicester part of?
Arsenal vs Leicester is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Premier League (England).
Who is favourite to win Arsenal vs Leicester?
Our statistical model gives Arsenal a 49% chance of winning, Leicester a 28% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Arsenal the favourite.
Will both teams score in Arsenal vs Leicester?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Arsenal and Leicester will score (BTTS).
Will Arsenal vs Leicester have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Leicester?
Record (2 meetings): Arsenal 2W | Draws 0 | Leicester 0W.
What form are Arsenal and Leicester in?
Arsenal (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Leicester (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Arsenal's attack at 1.15x the league average against Leicester's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.76 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Leicester's attack (1.06x) against Arsenal's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Arsenal Win
49%
2.06
23%
4.28
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Arsenal xG
Total xG
3.05
1.29
Leicester xG
2.06
49%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.67
40%
BTTS No
2.50
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
17%
5.82
Win to Nil
13%
7.49
5%
20.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.7 | 6.9 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Arsenal vs Leicester?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Arsenal and Leicester expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Arsenal and 1.29 for Leicester, a combined total of 3.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Arsenal vs Leicester?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Arsenal have picked up 1.85 PPG on a 23W 3D 13L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Arsenal, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Leicester's form line: 14W 11D 14L from 39 games, 1.36 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for Leicester, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Arsenal are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Leicester.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Arsenal have posted 2.16 PPG from 19 outings (13W 2D 4L).
On the road, Leicester have gone 4W 6D 9L from 19 away games — 0.95 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Leicester's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Arsenal come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Arsenal are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Leicester are on 1.64 scored and 1.56 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Leicester in 69%.
Defensively: Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Arsenal
Early Season
Leicester
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Arsenal and Leicester in coming into this match?
Arsenal have gone 23W 3D 13L in their last 39 games (1.85 PPG), while Leicester have gone 14W 11D 14L in their last 39 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Arsenal at home or Leicester away?
Arsenal's home record (2.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Arsenal at home: 2.16 PPG; Leicester away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Arsenal or Leicester been keeping clean sheets recently?
Arsenal have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Leicester in 18%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 15 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Arsenal go into this on the back of 6 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Arsenal have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Leicester — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
6
Arsenal
0
Draws
0
Leicester
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Arsenal and Leicester?
From 6 meetings on record, Arsenal have won 6, Leicester have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Arsenal and Leicester last play each other?
They last met on 15 February 2025, when Leicester 0-2 Arsenal.
Who has won more matches between Arsenal and Leicester?
Arsenal have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 53% for Arsenal, 84% for Leicester — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Arsenal and 63% for Leicester. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Arsenal keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Arsenal home games / Leicester away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Arsenal play Leicester?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Arsenal's games and 84% of Leicester's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Arsenal vs Leicester usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Arsenal's matches and 63% of Leicester's.
Arsenal cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Leicester.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Arsenal beat Leicester 4-2 at Emirates Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Arsenal 1.76 xG and Leicester 1.29 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Arsenal beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Arsenal attack 1.15 / defence 0.93 against Leicester attack 1.06 / defence 1.03, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Arsenal 49% | Draw 23% | Leicester 28%, with Arsenal to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Arsenal 56%, Leicester 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Arsenal's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Leicester's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Arsenal arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.36. Form held, and they took the win. Arsenal (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Leicester (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.