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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Nottingham Forest defy the odds to beat Tottenham 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Tottenham 1-0 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.09 xG and Tottenham 1.44 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Tottenham landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.90 / defence 0.79 against Tottenham attack 1.21 / defence 0.79, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 26% | Draw 31% | Tottenham 43%, with Tottenham to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 53%, Tottenham 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Tottenham's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Tottenham arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.22. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line. Tottenham (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.93 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights