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Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sunderland beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.39 xG and Sunderland 0.84 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 / defence 1.11 against Sunderland attack 0.63 / defence 1.04, drawn from 43/5 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 49% | Draw 28% | Sunderland 22%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Sunderland 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Sunderland's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.63 PPG, Sunderland 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.10 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights