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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Manchester City edge out Nottingham Forest 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Manchester City beat Nottingham Forest 1-2 at City Ground, Regular Season - 18, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG and Manchester City 1.89 xG, a combined 3.23. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.95 / defence 1.08 against Manchester City attack 1.37 / defence 0.91, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 27% | Draw 22% | Manchester City 50%, with Manchester City to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Manchester City 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Manchester City's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Manchester City arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.51. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights