🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Nottingham Forest and Liverpool share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest and Liverpool finished level at 1-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.37 xG and Liverpool 1.76 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.92 / defence 0.72 against Liverpool attack 1.61 / defence 1.01, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 28% | Draw 28% | Liverpool 45%, with Liverpool to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Liverpool 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Liverpool's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Liverpool arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Liverpool (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights