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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Leeds.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Leeds 3-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.69 xG and Leeds 1.00 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.81 / defence 1.27 against Leeds attack 0.67 / defence 1.35, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 53% | Draw 24% | Leeds 22%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 53%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Leeds 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.

Leeds's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Leeds arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.48. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm. Leeds (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.21 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights