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Shock result as Everton defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Everton beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.34 xG and Everton 0.60 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 1.12 / defence 0.61 against Everton attack 0.70 / defence 0.83, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 55% | Draw 28% | Everton 17%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Everton win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 54%, Everton 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

Everton's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.35 PPG, Everton 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Everton win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Everton (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights