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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at City Ground, Regular Season - 24, as Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace drew 1-1 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.22 xG and Crystal Palace 1.16 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 1.03 against Crystal Palace attack 0.89 / defence 0.99, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 34% | Draw 35% | Crystal Palace 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Crystal Palace 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Crystal Palace's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.48 PPG, Crystal Palace 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights