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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Chelsea run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest 0-3 at City Ground, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.24 xG and Chelsea 1.67 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Nottingham Forest fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Chelsea outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Chelsea attack 1.26 / defence 1.04, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 28% | Draw 25% | Chelsea 47%, with Chelsea to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 49%, Chelsea 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Chelsea's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.56 PPG, Chelsea 1.78 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Chelsea (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights