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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Chelsea defy the odds to beat Nottingham Forest 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Chelsea beat Nottingham Forest 0-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 38, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.28 xG and Chelsea 0.95 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Nottingham Forest fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.94 / defence 0.85 against Chelsea attack 0.82 / defence 0.94, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 44% | Draw 28% | Chelsea 28%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Chelsea win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 53%, Chelsea 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Chelsea's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.35 PPG, Chelsea 1.72 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Chelsea win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward. Chelsea (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights