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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Brentford.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Brentford 3-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.21 xG and Brentford 1.24 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Nottingham Forest beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Brentford attack 1.02 / defence 0.86, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 35% | Draw 29% | Brentford 37%, with Brentford to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Nottingham Forest win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 50%, Brentford 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Brentford's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.71 PPG, Brentford 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nottingham Forest win broke the near-deadlock. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm. Brentford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights