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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa finished level at 1-1 at City Ground, Regular Season - 32, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.01 xG and Aston Villa 1.07 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.67 / defence 0.87 against Aston Villa attack 0.98 / defence 1.08, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 31% | Draw 35% | Aston Villa 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 51%, Aston Villa 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Aston Villa's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Nottingham Forest 1.41 PPG, Aston Villa 1.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights