Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Nottingham Forest edge out Aston Villa 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Nottingham Forest beat Aston Villa 2-1 at The City Ground, Regular Season - 16, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Nottingham Forest 1.62 xG and Aston Villa 1.06 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nottingham Forest attack 0.84 / defence 0.82 against Aston Villa attack 0.92 / defence 1.18, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Nottingham Forest 49% | Draw 28% | Aston Villa 23%, with Nottingham Forest to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nottingham Forest 53%, Aston Villa 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Aston Villa's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Aston Villa arrived the stronger side — 1.75 PPG against 1.15. Form was overturned, with Nottingham Forest winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights