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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Newcastle run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Wolves.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Wolves 3-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 2.06 xG and Wolves 1.29 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolves landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.13 / defence 0.78 against Wolves attack 1.10 / defence 1.23, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 53% | Draw 25% | Wolves 22%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 66%, Wolves 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Wolves's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Wolves (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights