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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over West Ham.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat West Ham 3-1 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 37, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.99 xG and West Ham 1.21 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Newcastle beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.18 / defence 1.23 against West Ham attack 0.79 / defence 1.15, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 54% | Draw 24% | West Ham 22%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 40% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, West Ham 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

West Ham's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Newcastle arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. Newcastle (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm. West Ham (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights