Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Newcastle at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Newcastle face Sunderland.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
St. James' Park plays host to Newcastle versus Sunderland in Premier League (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Current Form
Newcastle's record over their last 10 games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Newcastle's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sunderland have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L D W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Sunderland's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Newcastle, 1 for Sunderland and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 14 Dec 2025, ended Newcastle 0–1 Sunderland — a Sunderland win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Newcastle half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Sunderland half-time and goal-timing data (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 41%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Newcastle 56% versus Sunderland 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Newcastle 62% | Sunderland 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Newcastle 1.84 xG and Sunderland 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Newcastle attack 1.232 / defence 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.628 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.245. Sunderland's attack rating of 0.628 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.97. Newcastle's defence rating of 1.243 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sunderland's projected output up. Data: built from Newcastle's last 68 games and Sunderland's last 30.
Result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18%. Fair-value odds: Newcastle 1.79 | Draw 3.81 | Sunderland 5.62. The model has a clear lean to Newcastle (56%) — a 30pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Newcastle are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Newcastle's last 10 home games and Sunderland's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Newcastle 80% (last 10 home games) | Sunderland 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Newcastle vs Sunderland | Competition: Premier League, matchday 31 | Venue: St. James' Park • Kick-off: Sunday 22 March 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Newcastle 1.84 / Sunderland 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Newcastle attack 1.232 / def 1.243 | Sunderland attack 0.628 / def 1.075 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.245 • Poisson stance: Newcastle (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Newcastle xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Sunderland xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Newcastle vs Sunderland FAQs
What time does Newcastle vs Sunderland kick off?
Newcastle vs Sunderland kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Sunday 22 March 2026 at St. James' Park.
What was the final score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Newcastle 1 - 2 Sunderland.
Where is Newcastle vs Sunderland being played?
The match is being played at St. James' Park.
What competition is Newcastle vs Sunderland part of?
Newcastle vs Sunderland is a Premier League fixture (matchday 31) (England).
Who is favourite to win Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our statistical model gives Newcastle a 56% chance of winning, Sunderland a 18% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Newcastle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Newcastle and Sunderland will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Newcastle vs Sunderland have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Newcastle's attack rating (1.23) and Sunderland's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.84 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Sunderland's attack (0.63x) against Newcastle's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from Newcastle's last 68 games and Sunderland's last 30 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.2%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Newcastle Win
56%
1.79
26%
3.81
18%
5.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Newcastle xG
Total xG
2.81
0.97
Sunderland xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
5.62
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
16%
6.30
Win to Nil
21%
4.73
3%
35.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.7 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.9 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Newcastle and Sunderland expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Newcastle and 0.97 for Sunderland, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Newcastle vs Sunderland?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Newcastle's recent record stands at 32W 12D 24L from 68 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with W-L-L-W-W in the last five.
Sunderland, meanwhile, have gone 25W 23D 20L across 68 games — 1.44 PPG, with L-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.59 PPG for Newcastle against 1.44 for Sunderland. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Newcastle have managed 20W 4D 10L from their last 34 home games — 1.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sunderland's away record stands at 10W 11D 13L across their last 34 away games, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Newcastle come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Newcastle are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Sunderland are on 1.06 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Newcastle
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
Newcastle (Home) vs Sunderland (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Newcastle
Current Season
Sunderland
Current Season
❓ Newcastle vs Sunderland Form FAQs
What form are Newcastle and Sunderland in coming into this match?
Newcastle have gone 32W 12D 24L in their last 68 games (1.59 PPG), while Sunderland have gone 25W 23D 20L in their last 68 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Newcastle at home or Sunderland away?
Newcastle's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Newcastle at home: 1.88 PPG; Sunderland away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Newcastle or Sunderland been keeping clean sheets recently?
Newcastle have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sunderland in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Newcastle and Sunderland, the earliest from December 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was on 22 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Newcastle
0
Draws
2
Sunderland
Recent Meetings
❓ Newcastle vs Sunderland H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Newcastle have won 0, Sunderland have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Newcastle and Sunderland last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 March 2026: Newcastle 1-2 Sunderland.
Who has won more matches between Newcastle and Sunderland?
Sunderland have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Newcastle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Sunderland are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 36% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Newcastle 56%, Sunderland 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Newcastle) and 41% (Sunderland).
On the defensive side: Newcastle keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Sunderland in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Newcastle home games / Sunderland away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Newcastle vs Sunderland Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Newcastle and Sunderland matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Newcastle's recent matches and 41% of Sunderland's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Newcastle and Sunderland matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Newcastle's recent games and 41% of Sunderland's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Newcastle and Sunderland matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 85% of Newcastle's recent matches and 62% of Sunderland's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sunderland defy the odds to beat Newcastle 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sunderland beat Newcastle 1-2 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.84 xG and Sunderland 0.97 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Newcastle fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Sunderland outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.23 / defence 1.24 against Sunderland attack 0.63 / defence 1.07, drawn from 68/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Newcastle 56% | Draw 26% | Sunderland 18%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Sunderland win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 62%, Sunderland 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Newcastle's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Sunderland's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.59 PPG, Sunderland 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sunderland win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward. Sunderland (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.79 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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