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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Newcastle cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Nottingham Forest.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Newcastle beat Nottingham Forest 2-0 at St. James' Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Newcastle 1.72 xG and Nottingham Forest 1.23 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Nottingham Forest landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Newcastle attack 1.09 / defence 1.07 against Nottingham Forest attack 0.96 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Newcastle 48% | Draw 25% | Nottingham Forest 27%, with Newcastle to win its most likely call at 48%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Newcastle 57%, Nottingham Forest 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Newcastle's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Nottingham Forest's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Newcastle 1.64 PPG, Nottingham Forest 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Newcastle win broke the near-deadlock. Newcastle (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line. Nottingham Forest (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights